- Litecoin value falls to inside $10 of the 200-week SMA (the imply).
- Weekly Ichimoku cloud emerges to halt the drop beneath the Might low.
- IOMAP metric exhibits credible assist between $117.91 and $126.14.
Litecoin value is making an attempt to get better assist on the 50-week easy shifting common (SMA) as LTC now trades within the higher half of the weekly vary. The rebound has channeled minimal curiosity as day by day quantity has shrunk every day. Nonetheless, a everlasting low might have been established on June 22, supported by the reversion to the 200-week SMA, which now solely requires extra dedication from speculators.
Litecoin value has large upside potential, however nonetheless removed from realizing it
On the June 22 low, Litecoin value had plunged 75% in simply over a month and severed the assist hooked up to the Might 23 low earlier than figuring out assist on the weekly Ichimoku cloud. The low got here in simply above the 200-week SMA (the imply). The occasion serves as a warning to bearish LTC traders looking for to punish the digital token additional.
Regardless of the developments this week, Litecoin value is confronted by a number of technical obstacles, together with the resistance of the 50-week SMA at $133.58. LTC is buying and selling barely above the shifting common, however it’s all concerning the shut on the finish of the week, not in the present day. A second impediment to erasing the weekly loss is the dominance of the June 2019 excessive of $146.00. In Might, Litecoin value closed slightly below the June 19 excessive, and the extent supported the primary two weeks of June.
One other impediment that impedes a profitable break above the June 2019 excessive is LTC investor dedication, as proved by the weak quantity. With out it, the rebound takes the look of a dead-cat bounce, and chances rise that Litecoin value begins trending decrease once more earlier than the top of the week.
One last impediment is the pending Death Cross because the 50-day SMA is inching nearer to crossing beneath the 200-day SMA. The cross doesn’t assure a brand new leg decrease for LTC, however it should for positive supply extra resistance if the rebound good points traction.
A weekly shut above the 50-week SMA and a day by day shut above the June 19 excessive is the proper recipe for a brand new Litecoin value advance. If it involves fruition, the one impediment of be aware on the weekly chart, earlier than the Fibonacci levels, is the anchored VWAP from the November 2020 breakout above the 200-week SMA at $182.06. The anchored VWAP was distinctive resistance on a weekly closing foundation the earlier 4 weeks.
LTC/USD weekly chart
If Litecoin value closes Sunday beneath the 50-week SMA, it should trace that Litecoin value will, at greatest, shuffle sideways, and at worst, pursue one other check of the Might low of $117.58. A drop to this week’s low of $105 stays a low chance occasion based mostly on the charts’ value construction.
The most recent IntoTheBlock In/Out of the Cash Round Worth (IOMAP) value clusters present significant assist between $117.91 and $126.14, with a complete of 123k addresses proudly owning 2.86 million LTC. The value vary corresponds loosely with the Might low, suggesting that $117.58 might be a problem to defeat.
LTC IOMAP – IntoTheBlock
Nonetheless, there are pockets of resistance (out of the cash addresses) at $138.10-$142.22 and $146.33-$150.44. Mixed, they verify the June 2019 excessive of $146.00 as a particular impediment to a sustainable advance.
Supporting a possible backside for Litecoin value is the Santiment 365-day MVRV (Market Worth to Realized Worth) ratio because it got here near the December 2019 and March 2020 lows. Litecoin value exploded after the December 2019 and March 2020 lows. The metric measures the common revenue/lack of LTC traders that bought the altcoin during the last yr.
LTC MVRV – Santiment
Subsequently, Litecoin value does face some instant challenges, as expressed by the charts and the LTC IOMAP value clusters. Nonetheless, the MVRV ratio dictates that any additional weak point needs to be purchased, and the longer-term outlook is compelling.